郑州市碳排放量现状与预测分析研究

Current Status and Prediction of Carbon Discharge Reduction in Zhengzhou

郑州市是中原经济区核心城市,无论是在经济社会发展还是低碳节能方面都有示范效应,碳排放强度的有效下降对于城市减排具有重要的借鉴意义。通过系统测算2005年-2012年郑州市碳源排放量及碳汇吸收量,分析碳排放量、人均碳排放量及碳排放强度等现状,然后运用IPAT模型,对郑州市碳排放强度进行情景分析和预测。结果表明,郑州市有较大减排潜力,应在满足减排要求前提下,实现经济与环境的可持续发展。

As the core city of Central Plains Economic Zone, Zhengzhou City has a demonstration effect on the economic de- velopment and low carbon energy saving. It is important to research the carbon emissions intensity reduction. First, the carbon e- mission of Zhengzhou City is estimated and analyzed from 2005 to 2012 to analyses the effect of carbon emissions. By using the method of IPAT model and scenario analysis, the possible impact and future changes of carbon intensity is predicted. The results showed that meeting the emission requirement is the premise of Zhengzhou for realizing harmonious and sustainable development of environment and economy.