基于DSSAT模型的中国水稻产量时空模拟研究

Study on Spatial and Temporal Simulation of Rice Yield in China Based on DSSAT Model

以DSSAT模型相关理论为基础,将DSSAT的作物生长模拟能力与GIS技术优势相结合,以在计算机上实现模拟水稻作物的生长以及产量,提升传统的单站点模拟能力,解决升尺度问题,模拟中国在不同历史时期(1980—2007年)的水稻产量。结果表明:DSSAT模型具有很好的水稻生长模拟效果,水稻开花期、成熟期、产量的模拟结果均较为理想,观测值与调试值、校准值相关系数R2均大于0.56,观测值与试验值具有很强的正相关性,为下一步研究中国水稻产量的时空分布格局奠定基础。

On the basis of DSSAT model related theory,in combination with DSSAT model and GIS technology,in order to achieve the growth and yield of rice crop on the computer simulation, enhance the ability to simulate the traditional single site, solve the upscaling problem, simulate rice yield of the different periods （from 1980 to 2007 ）in China.The results showed that DSSAT model had good crop simulation results, the simulation results of the rice flowering, maturity, yield were desirable, and the correlation coefficient between observations and commissioning, calibration was greater than 0.56.Observational values and experimental values had a strong positive correlation,laid the foundation for the study of the spatial and temporal patterns of Chinese rice yield.