省域经济发展方式转变的测度及影响因素研究

Study on Measuring the Transformation of Provincial Economic Development Pattern and Its Influential Factors

在探究经济发展方式转变理论的基础上，对省域经济发展方式转变可能存在的空间依赖性问题进行了验证，通过引入空间滞后变量，构建省域经济发展方式转变的空间计量经济学模型，运用中国1992～2012年31个省级单位的截面数据，从全域视角和局域视角分别对省域经济发展方式转变问题进行实证研究。研究发现：在全域视角下，除经济实力、经济市场化和人口素质等变量对省域经济发展方式转变影响不显著外，其他变量的影响均显著；在局域视角下，除经济实力、经济市场化、人口素质和生活质量等变量外，其他变量均存在显著的空间变异性。

Based on studying the theory of the transformation of economic development pattern, the paper tests the probable spatial interdependence of the transformation. By introducing the spatial lagged variable to construct the econometric model of provincial economic development pat- tern transformation, an empirical study is made on the pattern change from global perspective and local perspective based on the cross - sectional data of 31 provincial workplaces in China from 1992 to 2012. The results show that except economic power, economic marketization and population quality, all the other variables have significant influences on the transformation from global per- spective;from the local perspective, except economic power, economic marketization, population quality and life quality, all the other variables has significant spatial variability.