信贷条件、信贷流向及其对信贷政策的影响——基于家庭部门的实证分析

Credit Conditions,Credit Flow and Its Impact on Credit Policy——Empirical Analysis Based on Household Sector

借鉴F-C&M的分析框架,运用样条函数模拟金融制度变化,构建专门反映家庭部门信贷条件的隐变量,并运用误差修正方程组进行实证分析。结果表明:(1)在金融制度因素的作用下,住户信贷条件总体上趋于宽松,金融制度客观上已形成了驱动住户信贷条件不断趋向宽松的长效机制;(2)住户信贷流向具有非平衡性,同等宽松的住户信贷条件,对住户的抵押债务与非抵押债务影响程度不同;(3)短期风险因素、长期收入和财富因素对家庭信贷流向具有非平衡影响;(4)长期趋于宽松的金融制度,在一定程度上限制了信贷政策有效发挥作用的空间。货币当局应考虑金融制度对家庭信贷政策可能产生的抵消作用以及信贷流向非均衡性,坚持实施差别化信贷政策,加强对收入和财富的调节,以平衡住户信贷结构。

By borrowing the framework of F - C ＆ M, changes of financial institution is simu- lated based on spline function, and the hidden variable representing the credit condition of house- hold sector is constructed. An empirical analysis is made by using error correction equation. The conclusions are as follows： （ 1 ） Under the function of financial institution, the credit conditions of household tends to be loose in general ; （2） The credit flow of household has unbalanced feature, and the impact of the same credit conditions on household mortgage liability and non - mortgage li- ability is different; （3） Short term risk factors, long term income and wealth factors have unbal- anced influence on the credit flow of households; （4） The easing of financial institution in the long run limits the function of credit policy to a certain extent. Therefore, monetary authorities should take the offset effect of financial institution on monetary policy and the unbalanced feature of credit flow into consideration, insist on the implementation of differentiated credit policy, and strengthen the adjustment of income and wealth to balance the credit structure of households.