50年来辽宁省地温变化规律及播种期地温预报研究

The changes of ground temperature and the forecast of ground temperature in sowing period in Liaoning province for last 50 years

利用辽宁省38个站1961～2010年50a的0cm地温、5cm地温和平均气温资料,采用数理统计、气候倾向率、累积积温距平和信噪比方法,分析了0cm地温和气温、地-气温差的年际、年代际和季节变化特征,建立了春播期5cm地温预测模型。结果表明：0cm地温与气温在年际尺度上具有较好的线性相关关系;50a来,辽宁省年均0cm地温和气温均呈增温趋势,地温增温速率（0.39℃/10a）高于气温（0.30℃/10a）;0cm地温和气温的季节变化以升温为主,冬季升温速率最为明显,夏季升温速率最慢,辽宁0cm地温对气候变暖的响应比气温敏感;年均地-气温差为1.4℃～2.6℃,温差没有明显升高趋势;年平均气温、冬季0cm地温、0cm地-气温差在1987年、2000、2003年发生了气候突变;春播期5cm地温预测精度平均绝对误差为1.2℃～2.8℃,可用于春播期地温预报服务。

Based on 0cm ground temperature,5cm ground temperature and average air temperature data of 38 stations in Liaoning province from 1961 to 2010,the annual,decadal and seasonal variation characteristics of0 cm ground temperature,air temperature and soil-air temperature difference were analyzed by using mathematical statistics,linear tendency rate,accumulated temperature anomalies and signal to noise ratio methods,and the5 cm ground temperature prediction model for sowing period was established. The results showed that there were good linear correlations between 0cm ground temperature and air temperature in annual scale; in recent 50 years,annual 0cm ground temperature and air temperature presented increasing trends,the ascending rate of ground temperature（ 0. 39℃ /10a） was higher than that of air temperature（ 0. 30℃ /10a）. The seasonal variation of 0cm ground temperature and air temperature was mainly displayed increasing trends,the temperature ascending rate in winter was higher,and in summer it was the lowest; the 0cm temperature was sensitive to climate warming than temperature in Liaoning; the soil-air temperature difference had no discernable increasing,that was 1. 4 to2. 6℃; The abrupt changes of annual air temperature,0cm ground temperature of winner and 0cm soil-air temperature difference occurred in 1987,2000 and 2003; the mean absolute error of prediction precision of 5cm ground temperature in sowing period was 1. 2 to 2. 8℃,that can be used for ground temperature forecast in spring sowing period.