经济增长要素的空间效应及分解——基于空间杜宾模型的实证研究

Spatial Effects on Factors of Economic Growth and Its Decomposition——Based on Empirical Analysis on Spatial Durbin Model

经济活动具有空间相关性,考察一个地区的经济增长,需要把影响经济增长的人力资本、物质资本、交通基础设施和产业结构等因素纳入经济增长空间计量模型中。与普通面板数据计量模型相比较,在考虑空间效应情况下,产业结构水平和人力资本水平变化对经济增长贡献差异较大。通过空间杜宾模型分析,结果表明:人均物质资本水平对本地经济增长贡献较小,但对相邻地区贡献较大;人力资本水平对本地区经济起重要促进作用,但对相邻地区起阻碍作用;基础设施水平对本地区经济增长有一定负影响,但对相邻地区却有较大促进作用;产业结构水平提升对本地区经济增长有很大贡献,却对相邻地区经济增长有较大负作用。

Based on spatial correlation of economic activity, when examined a region＇ s economic growth, the main factors affect- ing the economic growth are needed to put into economic growth in spatial econometric model Such factors include hu- man capital, physic capital, transport infrastructure and industry structure. Compared with ordinary panel data econo- metric results, the level of industrial structure and human capital levels are quite different in contributing to economic growth after considering spatial effect. Through spatial Durbin model, the level of physical capital per capita has a small contribution to local economic growth, but it has a lager contribution to adjacent area. The level of human capital plays an important role in promoting economy in local region, but the effect is opposite in the adjacent ares. The level of infra- structure has some negative impact on economic growth in the local region, but it plays an important role in the adjacent ares. The level of industrial structure upgrading has a great contribution on economic growth in the local region, but has a great negative effect on economic growth in the adjacent area.