中国分部门债务水平与经济增长的动态关联性分析:1997～2013

An Analysis on the Dynamic Correlation between the Sector Debt Level and the Economic Growth of China: 1997～2013

采用1997~2013年中国家庭债务、非金融部门企业债务、公共债务及国内生产总值等宏观经济变量的季度数据,通过构建VECM模型,检验了中国分部门债务水平与经济增长的动态关联性。结果显示：家庭债务、非金融部门的企业债务与国内生产总值的关系为正相关,公共债务与国内生产总值关系为负相关。基于实证结果,政府应保持家庭债务规模的适度增长,企业需合理控制其债务规模,政府及相关机构应严控公共债务规模尤其是地方政府债务的进一步增大,促进经济的稳定与发展。

The article tested the dynamic correlation between the sector debt level and economic growth of China, by constructing an VECM model and using quarterly based data of household debt, enterprise debt of nonfinancial sectom, China＇s GDP and as well as other c variable. The results indicate that the increase of household debt and corporate debt would promote the increase of GDP, while the rise of public debt would promote decrease in GDP. Therefore, we suggest that： the goverument should maintain an appropriate increase on the scale of household debt, while enterprises should control the scales of their debt. Also, the government and relevant organizations should strictly control the scale of public debt, especially the debt by local governments, in order to promote the stability and development of the economy.