长江经济带市域经济格局演变及其影响因素

Evolution of Spatial-Temporal Pattern and Its Influential Factors of City Regional Economy in Yangtze River Economic Belt

运用空间自相关和空间计量方法对长江经济带市域经济差异的时空演变及影响因素进行了分析。结果表明:总体上长江经济带市域经济差异呈现出先增大再缩小的发展趋势。长江经济带经济表现出较强的空间相关性,高值和低值集聚现象显著,"高高"集聚较稳定在长三角地区,"低低"集聚有向分散的趋势发展;运用空间计量方法对两个阶段市域经济的影响因素进行了对比研究,分析得出财政收入和人口密度在两阶段由第一阶段的负效应作用转变成了第二阶段的正效应作用,财政支出在第一阶段的正效应作用转变成了第二阶段的负效应作用,经济结构和固定资产投资在两阶段都起着正效应作用,两阶段中固定资产投资的正效应都为最大,第二产业比重、第三产业比重和固定资产投资正效应作用上升明显。

This article analyzes the regional economic differences in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, using spatial autocorrelation techniques and spatial econometrics method. The result indicates that the regional economic differences become increasing at first and then decreasing. The economy in this area has significant spatial correlation. Besides, the combined effect is significant in high level and low level. In this article, we analyze the influence factors which lead to city regional economic in two stages. To summary, fiscal revenue and population density have negative effects in first stage, while the effects become positive in second stage. However, fiscal expenditure shows an opposite tendency, the economic structure and fixed asset investment plays a positive effect in both two stages. Besides, fixed asset investment has a significant positive effect. The positive effect is increasing significant in the proportion of secondary industry, proportion of third industry and fixed asset investment.