中国工业行业经济增长与CO_2排放的脱钩效应

The Effect of Sector Decoupling between China's Industrial Economic Growth and Carbon Dioxide Emissions

基于2000—2011年中国工业全部行业能源消费量,运用IPCC推荐的CO2计算方法,推算了中国工业全部行业2000—2011年间的CO2排放量,通过运用Tapio脱钩指标建立工业行业经济增长与CO2脱钩模型,测度了2000—2011年间中国工业全部行业以及分要素密集度行业的经济增长与CO2排放之间的脱钩关系及程度,分析了二者脱钩发展的时间演变趋势,结果表明,中国工业行业存在一定的脱钩效应,不同行业的脱钩指数差异较大,强脱钩行业呈现不断增加的趋势;不同要素密集度行业的脱钩状态表现出不同的发展特征,同劳动力密集型行业与资本技术密集型行业相比较,资源密集型行业的脱钩指数总体上处于较高状态。政府要充分利用税收、信贷等经济杠杆加大对企业在能源技术、新能源产品开发方面的支持力度,促进中国新能源产业的快速发展,从而从根本上减少碳排放,促进工业经济增长与碳排放的脱钩。

Based on the energy consumption of China＇s all elements of the industry, the carbon emissions in these industries are obtained by using the IPCC method from 2000 to 2011. By using Tapio＇ s decoupling indicators, this paper establishes the decoupling model of industrial sectors＇ economic growth and carbon dioxide, measures the decoupling effects and analysis the evolution trend of the decoupling development between China＇s industrial economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions in China＇s all elements of the industry as well as different elements of intensive industries. The result indicates that there are some decoupling effect in industrial sectors, and have big different decoupling index of different industrial sectors, and strong decoupling sectors have growing trend. Different intensive industries＇ decoupling index have the different development characteristics, Compared with the labor-intensive industries and capital and technology-intensive industries, resource-intensive industries decoupling indexes are at a high state as a whole. Government should take full advantage of the tax, credit and other economic levers to increase corporate support in energy technology, new energy product development, and promote the rapid development of China＇s new energy industry, thereby radically reducing carbon emissions and promote the decoupling of industrial economic growth and carbon emissions.