人力资本投资与农村非农就业关系的实证研究——以湖南省为例

The Relationship between Human Capital Investment and Rural Labor Forces Non-Agriculture Employment——A Case in Hunan Province

基于湖南省1985—2012年的时间序列数据,通过建立VECM模型、协整检验模型、格兰杰因果检验模型以及方差分解等模型分析农村非农就业与人力资本投资之间的关联。结论显示:人力资本教育投资、人力资本健康投资、人力资本迁移投资与非农就业存在长期稳定的均衡关系;从短期来看,人力资本健康投资、人力资本教育投资是非农就业的Granger原因,人力资本迁移投资不是非农就业的Granger原因;人力资本健康投资对非农就业的影响最大,其次为人力资本教育投资,人力资本迁移投资最小。

Based on the 1985-2012 time series data in Hunan Province, using the Vector Error Correction model, cointegration test, Granger causality test and variance decomposition, this paper analyses the relationship between human capital investment and the rural labor forces non-agriculture employment. The main conclusions are as follows： there is a long-term cointegration between the human capital investment in education, health, and migration and the off-farm employment; the human capital investment in health and education are the Granger-causes of the off-farm employment, though the human capital investment in migration isn＇t the Granger-cause of the off-farm employment in the short term; the effect of human capital investment in health on off-farm employment is the largest, followed by human capital investment in education, migration minimum.