广东省旅游业依赖度与经济增长关系的空间态势

Spatial Situation Analysis of Relationship between Tourism Dependency and Economic Growth in Guangdong Province

运用面板数据的计量分析法,以广东省21个地级市、珠三角、东翼、西翼和山区为基本分析单元,利用2000—2011年旅游业依赖度、经济增长等多个指标面板数据,从不同的空间尺度对旅游业依赖度与经济增长关系进行分析,并探讨其形成机制。研究表明:广东省和山区旅游业依赖度与经济增长之间呈现倒U型曲线关系,其他三个区域二者关系并不显著;采用固定效应模型分析二者关系成因,发现对旅游业依赖达到一定程度时,旅游业对制造业产生抑制作用,导致"荷兰病效应",对技术创新投入水平产生挤出效应,增加政府干预,弱化制度质量,其中阻碍制造业发展是最主要的传导途径,但旅游业发展会促进人力资本和物质资本投入水平的提高。最后,结合得出的结论,提出发展意见。

Based on quantitative analysis method of panel data, taking all the 21 prefectural-level cities in Guangdong Province, the Pearl River Delta, East wing, West Wing and Mountain area as objects, this study adapts panel data of tourism dependency, economic growth and other indicators from 2000 to 2011 to analysis relationship between tourism dependence and economic growth from different spatial scale, and explores its formation mechanism. The results shows that tourism dependence and economic growth appears inverted ＂U＂ type curve in Guangdong Province and Mountain area, the relationship in other three region is not significant. Further study the reasons of relationship applying fixed effects model, it shows tourism dependence will have ＂Dutch disease＂ effect on manufacturing, crowd-out effect on technology innovation investment level, increase government intervention, weaken system quality, However, the tourism industry＇ s dependence will promote the improvement of human capital and physical capital investment. Finally, combining with the conclusion, put forward the development suggestion.