不同升温目标下全球与中国未来排放空间分析

Global and China's Admissible Emissions Pathways Under the Different Warming Targets

利用自适应控制模型对气候系统进行模拟,比较了基于不同参照基准年2℃升温目标下的金球允许排放路径,在评价各目标可行性的基础上提出了三种减排目标方案,进而根据不同分配原则计算了中国未来的排放空间。研究表明,实现较工业化前升温2℃较为困难,实现较1850—1900年和1861—1880年升温2℃目标的可能性较大。提出了较工业化前升温2.5℃、较1986—2005年升温1.0℃和较1850—1900年升温1.5℃三种可行的轻度、中度和高度减排目标。中国在主权、平等主义和支付能力分配原则下可获得约1/5的比例份额,在三种目标情景中排放空间逐渐降低,排放缺口依次增大。

This paper adopted the adaptive control model to simulate the climate system, and simultaneously projected the global admissible emission paths under 2 ℃ warming targets relative to various base-years. It thrther proposed three viable warming targets based on the feasibility assessment of the aforementioned targets. Finally, we analyzed the corresponding admissible emissions and emission gaps for China under various principles of allocation. It indicated that it is hard to fulfill the 2℃ warming target relative to the pre-industrial level; while the likelihood to limit the warming within the 2 ℃ target relative to 1850-1900 or 1861 - 1880 is high. Moreover, we proposed the light-, mid- and heavy-abatement targets, which are to limit the warming within 2.5℃ relative to pre-industrial level, within 1.0℃ relative to 1986-2005 and within 1.5℃ relative to 1850-1900. China will acquire about one fifth of global emissions under the sovereignty, egalitarianism and ability-to-pay principles. But with all these principles, China＇s admissible emissions will shrink gradually under the three warming targets and the emission gap between demand and supply will enlarge accordingly.