中国房间空气调节器行业节能减排潜力分析

Analysis of Energy Efficiency and Emission Reduction Potentials of Room Air Conditioning Sector of China

2012年,中国房间空气调节器(空调器)保有量约为3.57亿台,依据抽样调查数据计算得到保有量装机容量,采用各省市夏季平均温度估算超过26℃的时间作为运行时间计算得出年电力消耗约3.28×10^(11)kW·h,折合碳排放约为318Mt CO_2当量。由于空调器国内需求量将进一步增长,预计到2030年保有量将达到当前的4~5倍。在电力结构不变情景下,空调器总体能效提高1倍,2030年空调器电力消耗产生的温室气体排放约为603 MtCO_2当量。假设空调器总体能效提高1倍、高能效产品消费比例进一步提高并伴随中国能源结构调整,如水电、核电、太阳能等低碳能源比例不断提高,在满足中国空调器需求的前提下,2030年中国空调器电力消耗产生的温室气体排放可以争取控制在当前的水平。

In 2012, China owns 357 million units of room air conditioners. Based on capacity of total air conditioner units from survey results and working hours when provincial average temperature in summer exceeds 26℃, annual electric power consumption was 3.28 ×10^11kW·h, equivalent to 318 Mt CO2-eq of carbon emission. Domestic demand for room air conditioners is expected to grow further and may fold 4-5 times of the current number of units by 2030. If the power structure remains the same but the energy efficiency of room air conditioners doubles, greenhouse gas emissions generated from electric power consumption of room air conditioners will be 603 Mt CO2-eq in 2030. If the overall energy efficiency of room air conditioners doubles, the consumption percentage of the room air conditioners with high energy efficiency inereases, and China＇s energy percentages of hydro, nuclear, solar and other low-carbon energy continue to grow, under the assumption that China＇s demand for room air conditioners is satisfied in 2030, it is possible to maintain the greenhouse gas emissions produced by room air conditioners from electric power consumption at the current level.