阿富汗和解进程:现状、原因与前景

Afghanistan's Reconciliation Process: the Current Situation,Reasons, and Prospect

自和平与重返社会方案实施以来,阿富汗政府尚未与塔利班领导层实现实质性的会谈。尽管在招安方面取得了一定成就,但也存在较大局限,和解现状堪忧。双方为谈判设定的条件悬殊、双方内部对和解的意见不一,以及国内外进程的影响是导致和谈陷入停滞的主要原因。而和平与重返社会方案自身存在缺陷,也导致招安有所成就但局限明显。在基于实力对比与意愿的分析上,认为在双方实力对比没有发生根本性变化的前提下,未来阿富汗政府与塔利班仍会继续现有规模的冲突,真正和解的道路将漫长而曲折。

Since the inauguration of the peace and reintegration program, Afghan government has not yet achieved any substantive talk with the Taliban leadership. Although amnesty has been offered and considered, limitations exist. Reconciliation is still a big problem. There is a great gap between the conditions offered by both sides for negotiations, and even within each side disagreements exist. This situation is worsened by domestic and international interferences besides the inherent defects that the peace and reintegration program has. Based on the analysis of both sides＇ strength and motivation for reconciliation, this paper suggests that if nothing happens to alter the strength of both sides, the current conflicts between the Afghan government and the Taliban will continue and true reconciliation will be difficult to achieve.