金融发展与能源消费互动关系研究——基于ARDL-ECM模型的实证分析

Research on the Interactive Relationship between Financial Development and Energy Consumption Based on the Empirical Analysis ARDL-ECM Model

本论文研究金融发展与能源消费之间的相互关系。论文先从经济增长与金融发展、经济增长与能源消费两个研究领域逐步引出金融发展与能源消费研究的理论依据及其研究的必要性。然后在Cobb-Douglas生产函数的基础上推导出实证研究模型,利用ARDL-ECM模型对金融发展和能源消费的长期相互关系和短期动态关系进行研究。研究认为,长期来看金融发展与能源消费之间存在正向的长期均衡关系,即金融发展与能源消费存在相互促进的关系;但是结果还显示能源消费对金融发展的影响程度更大。从变量之间短期动态关系来看,当期的金融发展会促进当期的能源消费,但是会降低随后1年和2年的能源消费增长;而当期的能源消费只会影响当期的金融发展,并且没有滞后效应。论文为更好地认识金融发展与能源消费提供了新的思路和研究依据。

This study investigates the dynamic causal relationship between financial development and energy consumption. This paper begins with the researches on economic growth ＆amp; financial development and economic growth ＆ energy consumption, and then gives theoretic basis and the necessity of the research. Based on Cobb-Douglas production function, empirical research model is deduced. The long-term correlation and short-term dynamic relationship between financial development and energy consumption is studied using ARDL-ECM Model. The study shows that there is long-term, positive, balanced relationship between financial development and energy consumption in the long run, i.e. financial development and energy consumption promote each other. However, energy consumption has greater impact on financial development. From the perspective of the short-term dynamic relationship between variates, present financial development can enhance present energy consumption, but reduces energy consumption growth in following 1 or 2 years;while present energy consumption can affect present financial development only, and there is no delay effect. This paper provides new mindset and research basis for better understanding financial development and energy consumption.