2014年国内成品油市场特点分析与后市预测

An Analysis of Chinese Petroleum Product Market in 2014 and Afternoon Market Forecast

2014年的国内成品油市场特点鲜明突出,成品油价格调整频繁,创近年来之最;汽、煤油消费增速平稳,柴油需求增速放缓,消费柴汽比继续走低;国内炼油能力继续增长,供过于求,中国石油和中国石化生产柴汽比下降;各地柴油质量升级置换不一,国Ⅳ、国Ⅲ资源并存;国家相关部门对成品油市场的增值税和消费税进行了多次调整。2015年,我国炼油能力将继续增长,但扩能幅度有所缩小;在经济和产业政策影响下,成品油需求增长进一步放缓,同比增长仅为3.0%,汽油和煤油需求将保持稳定增长,柴油需求继续放缓;成品油市场供过于求的局面仍将持续,特别是国内柴油供应宽松环境还会加剧,柴油需求将继续受到经济环境和结构调整等因素制约,增加出口仍将是释放国内柴油过剩产能的主要途径。2015年国际油价震荡下跌,根据国内成品油定价新机制,预计2015年成品油价格行情可能延续下行趋势,国内成品油价格总水平跌幅较上年扩大,价格走势或更趋平缓。

The domestic oil product market in 2014 had prominent characteristics-oil product prices were adjusted more frequently than any year in recent years;gasoline and kerosene consumption grew steadily, diesel fuel demand slowed and the ratio of diesel fuel to gasoline in consumption dropped;China＇s refining capacity continued to grow,to a level that is higher than demand and the ratio of diesel fuel to gasoline in production at PetroChina and Sinopec fell;diesel fuel upgrades in different regions were asynchronous,with products meeting national IV and V standards being used at the same time;and value-added tax and con- sumption tax were adjusted multiple times for the oil product market.In 2015,China＇s refining capacity will continue to grow,but by a smaller margin than in 2014.Mfected by economic and industry policies,China＇s demand for oil products will continue to slow and is expected to grow only 3.0% year on year.Demand for gasoline and kerosene will grow steadily and diesel fuel demand will keep slowing.The domestic oil product market will remain oversupplied.Particularly,the oversupply of diesel fuel will intensify and demand will con- tinue to be depressed by the economic environment and structural adjustments.Export will remain the main vent for the excessive domestic diesel fuel production capacity.As international oil prices fall,according to the new pricing mechanism for oil products,in 2015,oil product prices in China are expected to continue a downward trend and are expected to drop by greater margins than 2014.