经济体制改革与中国电力行业增长:1999—2010

The China's Electricity Structural Reforms and Indusial Growth:1999—2010

本文采用1999—2010年的中国分省面板数据,从市场竞争、产权改革和管制政策三个维度系统地考察经济体制改革对电力行业增长的影响,并分时段估算出不同改革政策对电力行业增长的贡献。结果表明,市场竞争和产权改革对电力行业增长具有显著的正向影响;管制政策对行业增长具有正向效应,但其显著性因政策类型而异;经济体制改革对电力行业增长的贡献率为9.37%,且随着改革的推进而递增:由1999—2004年改革初步阶段的7.20%增加至2005—2010年深化阶段的10.67%。以上结果对于不同的产出指标和改革变量组合的多种模型设定均是稳健的,以期该结论对继续深化电力以及推进其他垄断行业的体制改革提供现实的借鉴。

This paper provides an econometric assessment on the effect of structural re- forms on the growth of eIectricity industry in China from the perspectives of competition, ownership and regulations. The empirical results show that, （a） the competition, ownership reform and regulation policy have all improved productivity, thereby contribute to the rapid growth of the industry. In particular, the effect of ownership reform is more significant than others; （b） during the period of 1999 to 2010, the reforms account for 9.37% of the indusi- al growth, and this contribution has risen from 7. 200//00 in the initial stage, which is from 1999 to 2004, to 10.67% in the deepening stage, which is from 2005 to 2010. The results are robust to different models combined by various performance and reform variables, and have very important policy implications for further reforms in the electricity industry.