我国城市化对能源消费的影响机制研究

The Study on the Influence Mechanism of Urbanization on Energy Consumption

能源作为推进城市化发展不可或缺的生活、生产资料,平衡能源供需矛盾,才能稳步推进城市化进程。本文采用理论分析和实证检验相结合的方法,进行城市化影响能源消费的传导机制分析。城市化发展过程一方面通过产业集聚形成经济规模效应、结构效应和技术效应影响生产能源消费需求;另一方面通过人口聚集形成人口规模效应、收入效应和消费效应影响生活能源消费。本文基于2005-2012年各个省份的面板数据,首先建立各个中间传导变量与生产、生活能源消费的回归模型,然后度量各个变量与城市化率之间的相关性。最终结果显示城市化通过扩大经济规模、增加城镇人口、促进收入水平上升和降低恩格尔系数来增加能源消费量,同时通过降低单位产值能耗和第二产业比重、提高第三产业比重来减少能源消费量。

Energy is an integral part of living and productive resource in the process of urbanization. In order to steadily push forward the urbanization process ,valid efforts should be made to maintain the balance between supply and demand of energy. This article adopts the method of combing theoretical analysis and empirical test to analyze the influence mechanism of urban- ization on energy consumption. On the one hand urbanization process cast economic scale effect, structural effect and technical effect to influence the productive energy consumption through the industrial gathering. On the other hand urbanization process cast population scale effect, income effect and consumptive effect to impact the living energy consumption through the popula- tion gathering. Based on the panel data of each province from 2005 to 2012,this study first constructs two regression models concerning related variables with productive and living energy consumption,and then measures the relationship between the related variables and the urbanization rate. The final result shows that urbanization increases energy consumption by expanding economic scale, increasing urban population, raising income levels and reducing the Engel＇s coefficient. At the same time,ur- banization reduces energy consumption via raising the proportion of the tertiary industry ,reducing energy consumption per unit output value and the proportion of secondary industry.