基于制度变迁的我国商品期货交割演进分析

An Analysis of Commodity Futures Delivery Evolution in the Perspective of Institutional Change

交割是连接期货市场和现货市场的桥梁和纽带,是促使期货价格和现货价格趋合的制度保证。我国商品期货交割制度是在政府偏好主导期货市场的发展、现货市场基础逐渐加强和借鉴西方成熟市场交割制度的基础上建立和发展起来的,其制度变迁过程反映了从"零交割观点"到"限制交割观点"再到"无限制交割观点"的转变。过去二十多年,中国商品期货交割制度的演变是政府推动的强制性制度变迁;随着中国经济进入新常态,未来交割制度创新的路径应当由强制性变迁向诱致性变迁转变。政府应放松对市场微观主体(投资投机者、套利者、套期保值者和经纪商等)合理的自发行动的限制,充分发挥其主观能动性和创新能力;市场微观主体则需加强与政府监管部门的沟通及互动,以减少制度变迁的成本和阻力。

Delivery is coupled to the futures market and spot market as a bridge, which is the institutional guarantee to promote the convergence of futures price and current price. The delivery system of commodity futures in china is established and developed from dominating futures market by the government’ s preference, the spot market strengthened gradually but not formed, and referring to western mature market delivery system. During the evolution of delivery theories, three kinds of views changes： zero-delivery view, limited-delivery view and open-ended delivery view. The government is the main driving force for the change in the past more than 20 years. Along with the state economy enters the new normal, the future direction of innovation in the delivery system should be induced institutional change instead of mandatory change. The government should lessen restriction on the microscopic economic subjects such as investor and speculators, arbitrageurs, hedgers and brokers and encourage them to play their subjective initiative and innovation capability. The microscopic economic subjects need to strengthen communication and interaction with government regulators to decrease the cost and resistance caused by institutional change.