城市化与现代服务业发展关系的实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Urbanization and Modern Service Industry

基于我国31个省份的面板数据,实证分析了城市化与现代服务业发展之间的互动关系。研究结果表明,城市化在长期能够促进现代服务业发展,贡献程度为1.7405,这种促进作用在2006年以后逐渐显著;城市化在短期则不是现代服务业发展的主要促进因素。现代服务业不仅在长期能够促进城市化发展,贡献程度为0.1672,而且在短期也能够促进城市化发展。由于各地区基础条件的差异,使得城市化与现代服务业之间的关系也呈现出明显地域差异。

According to the panel data on per value-added of modern service industry and proportion of urban population in China＇s 31 provinces from year 2000 to 2012, this paper carries out an empirical analysis between urbanization and modern service industry by using econometric method. The result shows that there is long-term both-way causality between modern service industry and urbanization. Urbanization has a positive impact on modern service industry growth, with the promoting role gradually become significant after 2006 and the influence coefficient is 1.7405. Modern service industry also has a positive impact on urbanization and the influence coefficient is 0.1672. But in the short- term, there is only one-way causality, that is to say modem service industry can boost the development of urbanization. Because of the difference in the basis for development, the relationship between urbanization and modern service industry also presents obvious regional differences.