基于PVAR模型的国有林区生态系统金融支持影响研究

Research on Influence of Financial Support to State-Owned Forest Ecological System Based on PVAR Model

基于面板向量自回归（panel vector auto-regression,PVAR）模型分析方法,从林业资金投入、人员投入、造林面积和涉林产值四个指标变量出发,动态分析了我国9个国有林区2003～2012年涉林产业数据.研究表明,我国国有林区是一个具有短期自适应性的动态系统.四个指标变量中,林业资金投入和造林面积的相互影响不明显,这说明现有林业金融支持对林区发展的贡献不显著.为了促进国有林区经济发展、增强国有林区金融支持效果,从拓展资金来源渠道和创新金融产品服务等角度提出我国国有林区生态系统金融支持体系的优化建议.

Based on the panel vector auto-regression （PVAR） model analysis, from forestry funding, staff input, the output value of forest area and forest-related variables starting four indicators, this paper dynamically analyzes the involving forest industry data from 2003-2012 in nine state-owned forest areas. Studies show that China＇s state-owned forest is one with short-term adaptive dynamic systems. Research shows that our country state-owned forest region is a dynamic system with short-term adaptability. Among the four index variables, the forestry funds investment and the forestation area of interaction are not obvious; it shows that the existing forestry financial support for the development of forest was not significant. On this basis, in order to promote economic development, strengthen the state-owned forest region of state- owned forest financial support effect, the author suggest that it is necessary to expand channels of funding sources and innovative financial products and services, and improve the state-owned forest green financial support and so on.