住房及房价预期对家庭创业的影响

Effects of Expectation of Real Estate Price on Family Entrepreneurship

本文运用CHFS2011数据分析住房及房价预期对家庭创业的影响。研究发现:在存在正规信贷约束的情况下,自有住房使家庭创业的概率提高2%,房屋价值每升值1万元使家庭创业的概率提高0.3%。对于拥有住房的家庭,预期房价上涨使家庭创业的概率减少23.9%。本文认为住房和房价预期对家庭创业的影响是复杂的,自有住房和房屋价值通过财富效应增加家庭创业,而房价预期通过挤出效应和替代效应减少家庭创业。

Using CHfSS2.011, this paper analyses the impact of housing and the housing prices expectation to family entrepreneurship. We found that under the formal credit constraints, the probability of entrepreneur which the family have already owned houses will increase 2%. A housing value＇s increase of 10000 Yuan per house corresponds to about 0.3 percentage points＇ increase to the probability of entrepreneur. For the family which owns houses, an anticipation of housing prices increase corresponds to 23.9 percent points decrease in the probability of entrepreneur. This paper suggests that the impact of housing and housing price anticipation to family entrepreneurship is complex. The value of owning housing increases family entrepreneurship by house- hold wealth effect, while the increasing of housing prices expectation reduce the likelihood of entreprenettrship by crowding- out effect and substtufion effects.