我国经济周期波动的“软着陆”态势与持续期估计

The trends of “soft landing” of the fluctuation of China's economic cycles and the evaluation on duration period

本文对比了现阶段与1996年经济"软着陆"时期的各项宏观经济指标,并对本轮经济周期的持续期进行了估计,同时测算了在当前世界宏观经济环境下,来自世界经济的外生冲击对我国总产出增速的影响。我们认为:从"十二五"后期开始,我国宏观经济将形成新一轮"软着陆",并且本轮经济"软着陆"的平面将明显低于上次,此外,本轮"软着陆"后的持续期将显著延长,这将直接影响"十三五"期间的发展格局。

This paper compares all the macro economic indicators at the present stage and those during the period of eco-nomic ＂soft landing＂ in 1996, estimates the duration time of present economic cycle, and measures the impact of exogenous shock from the world economy to the growth rate of China＇ s gross output. We hold that： after the latter part of ＂the twelfth five-year-plan＂, China＇ s macro economy will witness a new round of ＂soft landing＂, the flat surface of the economic ＂soft landing＂ this time will be lower than last time, and in addition, the duration time of the economic ＂soft landing＂ this time will be extended obviously, which will directly influence the development pattern during the period of ＂the thirteenth five-year plan＂.