美国酝酿在韩部署“萨德”系统问题辨析

An Analysis of U.S. Deployment of THAAD System in South Korea

2014年中以来,美国推动在韩国部署"萨德"系统,相关国家及学者对此立场与观点明显对立。"萨德"系统的关键是其带有一部"AN/TPY-2"X波段远程火控雷达,在韩国部署该系统将严重损害中国核威慑及常规威慑能力,而韩国已有的"绿松"雷达足以覆盖朝鲜半岛,"萨德"附带雷达不能对韩美防范朝鲜导弹威胁提供新的帮助,"萨德"拦截导弹也不能保护包括首尔在内的韩国北部地区。因此,美国在韩部署"萨德"系统并非针对朝鲜,而是明确的单独针对中国的军事举措,其真实目的是借机整合美日韩东亚反导体系,抵消中国战略威慑效果,强化对华介入作战能力,这无助于东北亚的安全稳定,也有损韩国安全利益。

The United States has strived to deploy a THAAD system in the Republic of Korea since mid- 2014,triggering wide controversies among the concerned countries. To understand this issue,some basic questions need to be answered. Will the THAAD system severely damage China's strategic security? How much would ROK benefit from the THAAD deployment in response to the DPRK missile threat? Will it improve U. S. capability to detect and intercept DPRK's ICBM? The key to understand the THAAD deployment is that the system includes an AN /TPY- 2 X- band radar,which could be detrimental to Chinese nuclear and conventional deterrence capabilities. In fact,the existing Green Pine radar system in ROK can provide coverage for the whole peninsula,and the AN / TPY-2 X- band radar will not provide significant new coverage or tracking time for missile defense purposes vis- à- vis the DPRK missile threats. The THAAD interceptors can not protect the northern areas of ROK including Seoul. Thus the U. S. decision to deploy THADD system in ROK will surely pose a military threat to China. Its purpose is to further integrate the U. S.- Japanese- South Korean missile defense architecture as a counterweight to China's deterrence. This will destabilize the East Asia region and eventually damage the national security interests of ROK.