云南省人口发展与耕地需求预测

The Population Development and Cultivated Land Demand Forecast in Yunnan Province

以满足云南省未来人口发展所需粮食为出发点,通过对粮食供需、耕地总量及占用趋势、人口发展进行分析,运用Logistic预测模型确定未来人口数量、耕地需求量等相关因子,从而计算出耕地供需量并对云南未来耕地的供给、需求进行分析和预测。结果表明:按照当前耕地变化趋势,云南省耕地能够满足未来人口发展的粮食需求。并对未来可能出现的情况进行分析,为保障耕地、确保粮食安全提出相关建议。

This paper focus on the future food needed for population development in Yunnan Province, analyzing the food supply and demand, total arable land and occupied trends, and the population development in Yunnan Province. Using the Logistic prediction model determines the population in the future and the factors in the calculation of cultivated land demand. By establishing a logistic prediction model and Spss statis- tical software to analyze and forecast the amount of supply and demand of cultivated land. This paper considers that according to the current cultivated land change trend, the cultivated land will meet the food demand of population development in the future in Yunnan Province. This paper also analyzes the possible situation, and offers some suggestions to ensure cultivated land and food security.