山东省用水总量与用水结构动态关系分析

Dynamic relationship analysis between total water consumption and water utilization structure in Shandong Province based on the VAR model

区域产业用水总量与用水结构的变动响应关系分析,是落实最严格水资源管理制度、制定产业结构与用水结构调控方案的关键。以山东省1995—2012年用水总量、用水结构及经济发展数据为基础,采用向量自回归模型,通过方差分解及脉冲响应分析,探讨了山东省历史年份产业用水总量与用水结构变动之间的响应关系。结果表明:影响山东省用水总量变化的主要因素依次为前一期用水总量、农业用水比重、工业用水比重和生活用水比重;山东省用水总量与生活用水比重间呈负向响应关系,农业用水比重比工业用水比重的正向影响大。通过降低农业用水比重、适当增加生活用水比重和控制工业用水比重的调整措施,可进一步转变和优化山东省用水结构方式,使山东省用水结构向合理均衡的方向发展。

Dynamic relationship analysis between regional industrial total water consumption and water utilization structure is the key for the strictest water resource management system and regulating industrial and water utilization structures. Based on total water consumption, water utilization structure and economic devel- opment of Shandong Province from 1995 to 2012, this study adopted the vector auto-regression （VAR） model, then revealed the dynamic relationship between industrial total water consumption and water utiliza- tion structure for Shandong Province through variance decomposition and impulse response function. Results showed that the sequence of impact factors on total water consumption of Shandong Province was total water consumption of past one period, the proportion of agricuhural water, industrial water and domestic water, and also revealed the negative response relationship between total water consumption and the proportion of domestic water, while the positive influence of the proportion of agricultural water was greater than industrial water. Therefore the water utilization structure in Shandong Province could be further transformed and optimized by means of decreasing the proportion of agricultural water, meanwhile increasing domestic water and properly controlling industrial water. This study will enrich the theory and practice research of the interaction between regional economic development and supply and demand of water, which would provide scientific and reasonable decision basis for proposing schemes of regional water resources planning and social development.