试析公共政策问题构建中的不确定性

Analysis of the Uncertainty in the Construction of Public Policy Problem

公共政策问题的构建不仅包括事实判断,也包括一系列的价值判断和选择,其中充满了各种各样的不确定性。如在问题感知阶段有信息、社会共识、问题情境的不确定性,在问题搜索阶段有搜寻边界、搜寻人员、政府态度、利益团体影响等不确定性,在问题界定阶段有价值取向、专家作用、政府立场等不确定性,在问题陈述阶段有陈述者素质、社会资源、其他环境因素等不确定性。从某种意义上说,公共政策问题构建就是一个在不确定性中寻找确定性的过程。

The construction of public policy problem includes not only the fact judgments, but also a series of value judgments and choices, with all kinds of uncertainties in the whole process. In the phase of problem perception, the uncertainties were presented at those aspects such as information, social consen- sus and problem situation; in the phase of problem search, the uncertainties were presented at those as- pects such as search boundaries, the uncertainty of searchers, the attitude of government and the influence of interest groups; in the phase of problem definition, the uncertainties were presented at those aspects such as value orientation, the function of experts and the standpoint of government; in the phase of prob- lem statement, the uncertainties were presented at those aspects such as presenter quality, social resources and other environmental factors. In a sense, the construction of public policy problem is a process of loo- king for certainty in uncertainty.