2015-2030年中国经济发展趋势及新战略选择

Economic Development Trend and New Strategic Choice in China:2015-2030

"十三五"时期,随着我国经济进入新常态,经济增长速度将继续下降,回落到6%-6.5%的水平。如果未来几年我国调结构、促改革能取得突破性进展,那么,大概在2023年前后,我国经济增长将保持"中高速",经济结构将迈向"中高端"。要实现这个新常态的发展目标,必须在"十三五"期间通过宏观调控的创新来稳增长,使经济运行较长时间内稳定在合理区间,同时化解各类经济风险;把转方式、调结构放在更加重要的位置,通过实施六大发展战略,实现我国经济由中低端向中高端的转变,在不断优化结构中释放需求潜力,增强发展的持久动力,为较长时间实现"中高速"增长提供支撑;全面深化改革,增加经济发展的活力和创新推进力,保障社会的公平正义,实现国家治理能力的现代化,尤其要通过深化财税体制改革,解决公平问题和收入差距过大问题。

During the 13th Five-Year-Plan period, with China＇s economy entering into the new normal, the economic growth rate is estimated to drop to 6%-6.5%. With dramatic breakthroughs in adjusting economic structure and promoting the reform, the economy is estimated to grow at a ＂mid-and-high rate＂ and develop into a ＂mid-and-high grade＂structure around 2023. To achieve that end, stabilizing growth should be based on innovation of macro control to allow economy to operate in a reasonable range and various economic risks should be resolved. More efforts should be made to transform the economic development pattern and adjust the economic structure. The six development strategies should be implemented to allow the economy to transform from low end to high end. Demand potential should be released while optimizing economic structure to strengthen the lasting motive force of economic development to support the mid-and-high growth rate. The reforms should be deepened comprehensively to increase vitality and innovation capability of the economic development. The social equity and justice should be guaranteed and the national governance ability should be modernized. Particularly, the reform of the fiscal and taxation system should be deepened to promote fairness and narrow income gap.