影响中国国际资本流动的因素研究——引入外部非常规货币政策变量

Factors influencing China's International Capital Flows

在经济制裁压力下,俄罗斯出现了严重的资本外逃现象。以此为鉴,我们选取2009年1月-2014年6月的相关数据,并在三种不同的国际资本规模测算口径下,研究影响中国国际资本流动的主要因素。实证结果表明,当前中国的国际资本流动仍主要受经济发展形势、外汇储备规模变动、套汇和避险动机等传统因素影响,同时量化宽松等外部非常规政策也影响了通过隐藏途径流动的国际资本规模。

Under the pressure of economic sanctions, Russia witnessed a serious capital flight. Selecting the relevant data in January 2009 -2014 in June and using three different sizing caliber of international capital, this paper researches the main factors influencing China＇s international capital flows. The empirical results show that China＇s current international capital flows is still mainly affected by the economic development of the situation, the impact of changes in foreign exchange reserves, currency arbitragea, risk hedging motives and other traditional factors. While other external unconventional policy such as quantitative easing policy has also affected the flow of international capital scale through the hidden way.