新技术冲击、产业演化与公共政策选择——以新能源车为例

New Technology Shock,Industry Evolution and Public Policy Choice:the Case of New Energy Vehicle

在日益增强的资源环境约束下,战略性新兴产业被各国政府作为未来产业布局的重点。以新能源车为研究对象,对N-W模型和历史友好模型加以拓展,从产品性能、销售价格和消费支出3个维度表征新旧技术范式,构建包含企业决策、消费者选择和市场竞争的市场选择机制,基于系统模拟方法仿真了新技术冲击下的汽车产业演化过程,考察了公共政策对新能源车企业的扶持效应,结果发现:当传统汽车率先进入市场时,凭借产品性能和销售价格优势成为市场主导,只有少部分新能源车企业能够在市场中生存,但利润水平和市场份额都十分有限;消费补贴有利于降低新能源车的价格门槛,在短期内起到刺激新能源车购买的功能,政策效应较为迅速;基础设施建设则通过提高消费者后续使用的满意程度扩大需求规模,虽然作用效果相对迟缓,但从根本上增强了新能源车企业的竞争力。

With growing constraints on resources and environments, strategic emerging industries are regarded as a key to the plan of future industries by governments. With the case of new energy car, we extend the N-W model and history friendly model, and characterize the old and new technology paradigms via product performance, sale price and consumer expenditure, and construct the market selection mechanism with business decision, consumer choice and market competition. Using system simulation, we simulate the car industry evolution process under the new technology shock, and study the support effect of public policy for new energy car companies. The results show that, when traditional cars enter the market first, they can become the market leader with the advantages of product performance and sale price, only a small part of the new energy car companies can survive in the market, but the profit level and market share are very limited; consumer subsidies help reduce the price threshold of new energy car and stimulate the purchase of new energy car in the short term, and the effect of policy is responsive; infrastructure construction through improved consumer satisfaction of subsequent use to expand the scale of demand, although the effect being relatively slow, enhances the competitiveness of new energy car companies fundamentally.