公路BOT项目决策阶段交通量预测调整方法

Adjustment Methods of the Traffic Volume Forecast in the Highway-BOT-Project Decision

交通量是收费公路能否盈利的决定性因素之一,因此在BOT项目决策阶段对交通量预测的准确把握十分重要,关系到投资方的切身利益。首先分析了BOT决策评估中交通量预测需要调整的原因,其次总结了交通量预测的调整内容,进而提出了基于可研报告的交通量调整方法。最后以某高速公路BOT项目为例,运用提出的方法进行了交通量调整,表明方法具有可操作性和实用性。

As one of the decisive factors in if the toll road can be profitable, forecasting the traffic volume accurately in the highway - BOT - project decision is pretty significant, which is related to the vital interests of the investors. The paper is done in three phases. First, the reason of adjusting traffic volume in a BOT project evaluation is explained. Second, the paper summarizes the adjustment content of traffic volume forecasting, and then proposes the adjustment method based on feasibility report. Finally, the method is applied to a case study of a highway BOT project, and result is presented, indicating that the method is workable and practical.