震灾应急物资动态需求预测模型研究

Research on Dynamic Demand Forecast Model for Emergency Supplies in Earthquake Disasters

为提高应急物资需求预测方法的实用性,同时考虑提前期和需求的不确定性,采用安全库存理论构建震灾应急物资动态需求预测模型,以观测得到的实际到货量、实际消耗量和实时剩余库存量等信息来动态预测当前时刻应急物资的需求量。应用算例表明,所建模型不仅能够准确反映需求量与被保障人员总数的正相关关系,而且还能实时体现被保障人员总数的变化情况。因此,该模型能够为震灾过程中应急物资需求量的确定提供科学决策依据,具有一定的实用价值和应用前景。

In order to improve the practicability of the demand forecast method for emergency supplies, a dynamic demand forecast model for emergency supplies in earthquake disasters was proposed, which adopted the theory of safety stock and took the uncertainty of demand and lead-time into consideration. Some actual information was used to forecast the current demand in the pre- sented model, such as the arrived volume of emergency supplies, actual consumption and real-time residual stocks. The numerical results show that the model can not only accurately reflect the positive relationship between demand and the total number of person- nel to be supplied, but also trace the change of the total number of personnel to be supplied in real time. Therefore, the model can provide a scientific basis for determining the demand of emergency supplies in earthquake disasters and has wide application pros- pects and practical values.