含光伏和风电的电力系统随机生产模拟

Probabilistic Production Simulation of Power System with Photovoltaic Power and Wind Power

为了解决电网中不断增加的间歇式能源给电力系统的规划和运行带来的困难,研究了光伏和风电同时并入电力系统后的随机生产模拟计算模型。基于随机生产模拟方法以及其中多状态机组的处理方法,建立了光伏的多状态计算模型。同时,结合该模型和风电等效多状态模型分析处理了光伏和风电两种间歇式能源同时并入电力系统后的随机生产模拟情况。光伏多状态计算模型可以考虑到太阳能的间歇性和不确定性。比较计算结果与实际情况表明,在随机生产模拟中,采用这两个处理间歇式能源的计算模型,得到的光伏发电量和风电场出力接近于实际情况,为恰当安排电能生产提供依据。

In order to deal with the troubles derived from escalation of intermittent energy sources, model of probabilistic production simulation with photovohaic power and wind power both connected to power system is researched. Based on probabilistic production simulation and multi-state service provider model, multi-states photovoltaic power model is put forward. Meanwhile, this model and an equivalent multi-states wind power model are synthesized in probabilistic production simulation to analyze the condition that photovohaic power and wind power are both connected to power system. The multi-states photovoltaic power model can take uncertainty and intermittence of solar energy into consideration. After the comparison of the results acquired from the model and actual outputs of photovohaic power or wind power, it can be asserted that the model and the combination work out well to arrange the power production properly.