近15年来影响肇庆地区的热带气旋统计分析

Statistical Analysis of Tropical Cyclones Affecting the Zhaoqing Prefecture over the Past 15 Years

采用2000—2014年肇庆地区的降水和大风资料,以及登陆粤闽琼3地的热带气旋资料,统计分析对肇庆有影响的热带气旋,结果表明：1影响的台风共52个,年平均3.5个,最多7个,最少1个,大部年份3~5个,总体上呈微弱的上升趋势。2影响时间主要集中在7—9月,最早出现在6月23日,最晚为10月7日。3登陆时强度主要为强热带风暴级和台风级,共36个,占69.2%。4对肇庆有影响的热带气旋有3种情况：热带气旋在福建或粤东沿海附近登陆后向西北或偏西、偏西南方向移动,且强度在10级以上;热带气旋在珠江口附近或电白到珠江口之间沿海地区登陆;热带气旋在海南文昌或湛江登陆后向西北到偏北方向移动,且登陆时强度在8级以上。

With the data of precipitation and strong wind in the 15 years of 2000 -2014 in the Zhaoqing prefecture and tropical cyclones making landfall in Guangdong, Fujian and Hainan, this paper statistically studies the tropical cyclones （TCs） affecting the area. The results are shown as follows. ①There are a total of 52 affecting TCs, with an annual mean of 3.5, annual maximum of 7, annual minimum of 1 ; three to five TCs affected the area annually and generally their number shows a mildly increasing trend. ② The affecting TCs mainlY occur in July to September with the earliest date of influence being June 23 and the latest one October 7. ③At landfall, 36 TCs are on the level of severe tropical storm or typhoon, taking up 69.2% of the total. ④Three main patterns are associated with the TCs that affect the area： they land on the coast of Fujian or eastern Guangdong before moving northwest, west or southwest, with the intensity above Level 10; they land in the estuary of Pearl River or the coastal area between Dianbai and the estuary; they land on Wenchang of Hainan or Zhanjiang of Guangdong before moving northwest or north, with the intensity above Level 8.