人口统计研究中方法的误用与滥用——以P/F比方法为例

Misuse and Abuse of Demographic Methods:The Example of P/F Ratio Method

人口统计的方法和技术是帮助人们从数量上分析和认识人口现象的有力工具。但是,倘若运用不当,即使是科学的方法和技术,也有可能得出错误的结论,甚至会成为谬误的护身符。近年来,人口研究中误用或滥用统计分析方法的现象经常出现,并已影响到人口统计的严肃性和人口分析的准确性。文章以新近采用P/F比方法检验中国2010年第六次全国人口普查生育数据的一项研究为例,具体说明如果统计方法使用不当,特别是若无视方法内在包含的前提假定,便会得到误导性的结论。因此,人口研究中应当谨防方法的误用与滥用。

Demographic methods and techniques are powerful tools to quantitatively analyse and understand the phenomenon of population.However,the scientific methods and techniques are likely to draw wrong conclusions,and they may even become the amulet of a fallacy,if they are used undeservedly.In recent years,misuse and abuse of demographic methods appear quite often in population studies,which are harmful to the seriousness and the accuracy of population statistics.Taking a new study of the fertility level with the P/F ratio method for the 2010 national population census as an example,this paper displays how a scientific method could produce a series of misleading conclusions when the assumptions were ignored and the precondition were not satisfied.Therefore,researchers should be wary of misuse and abuse of demographic methods in population studies.