乌鲁木齐旅游业对不同重大事件的响应程度研究

A Research on the Influence of Major Events to Urumqi

乌鲁木齐是新疆的首府,也是新疆最大的旅游客源地和中转地,在新疆旅游业的发展中具有举足轻重的地位。但是近年来频发的大事件对乌鲁木齐旅游业造成了深远的影响,研究重大事件对于乌鲁木齐旅游业的影响规律,有利于其旅游业的健康发展。本文系统搜集了1995-2011的乌鲁木齐旅游业的数据,利用SPSS、Mat Lab等统计学软件,建立了乌鲁木齐国内和国际旅游业的本底趋势线方程,并测量出重大事件对乌鲁木齐国内和国际旅游收入、人数的影响。结果表明:不同事件对于乌鲁木齐旅游业的影响各不相同,总的来看影响最大的是"SARS"事件和"7.5"事件;同一事件对于乌鲁木齐入境旅游业和国内旅游业的影响具有较大的差异性,尤其是上海世博会,其对于入境旅游的贡献为正,而对于国内旅游的贡献却为负;重大事件对于乌鲁木齐旅游业的影响主要是负面,但乌鲁木齐国内旅游业对于重大事件的防御能力明显强于入境旅游业;而入境旅游人数对于重大事件的防御能力明显强于入境旅游收入。

Urumqi is the capital and the largest tourism group andTransit Depotof Xinjiang.It has a pivotal position in Xinjiang tourism industry＆#39;s development. But in recent years, the events had a far-reaching inlfuence on Urumqi tourism, and studies of the inlfuence of major events for Urumqi tourism are conducive to the healthy development of the tourism industry. In this paper, collect the data from 1995-2011 in Urumqi tourism were collected,SPSS and MatLab were used to establish the background trend line equation and calculate the inlfuence of the major event to Urumqitourism. The results indicate that： The inlfuence of different events to Urumqi tourism are not identical, and the greatest inlfuence on the whole is the ＆quot;SAS＆quot; and ＆quot;7.5＆quot; events. In Urumqi, the inlfuence of the same event to the inbound tourism and domestic tourism has great difference, especially in the Shanghai world expo . Forthe inbound, its contribution is positive, but for the domestic tourism it is negative. The inlfuence of different events to Urumqi tourism is basically negative; however, in Urumqi, the defense capability of domestic tourism industry to a major event is stronger than the entry tourism. And the defense capabilities of the number of inbound tourism is stronger than the inbound tourism revenue for signiifcant events.