通货紧缩的争议与实证分析

Deflation Debate and Positive Analysis

持续性通货紧缩会对经济造成严重冲击。本文梳理学界一些具有争议的判断通货紧缩的方法,讨论当前国际社会面临的热点经济问题,提出当前世界各国面临的主要风险是通货紧缩,又通过实证分析判断中国目前已经面临通货紧缩的风险,并对中国经济下一步的发展提出了对策建议:中国要准确判断货币供求状况,在通货紧缩时期去杠杆化更要慎重,应站在国际视野考虑应对通货紧缩的举措,通过大数据等方法及时预判通货紧缩水平,组合运用稳健货币政策和宽松财政政策,引导社会投资和居民消费行为。

Persistent deflation can severely strike the economy.The paper reviews the academic methods under dispute regarding deflation,discusses that the current hot economic issues facing the world is deflation,puts forward that the current major risks facing various countries worldwide is the risk of deflation.Through positive analysis,The paper concludes that China is now faced with the risk of deflation,thenpresents the proposals and countermeasures for China'sfuture economic development:China should accurately judgecurrency supply and demand condition,be more prudent whenadopting the deleveraging measures in the deflationary period;measures for the sake of dealing with deflation should be taken with international perspective,deflation levels should be predicted with methods such as big data,and the combination of prudent monetary policy and loose fiscal policy can be used,so as to guide social investment and consumer behavior.