基于时间序列聚类方法的小长假铁路客流规律研究

Study on regular pattern of railway passener flow in three-daw holiday based on clustering method of time series

分析了小长假铁路客流的行成原因,从出行者特征和出行目的两方面总结了客流影响因素。以客票历史数据为依据,从日发送量、乘车里程等级、席别等级等方面分析了小长假铁路客流波动趋势。定义小长假客流波动系数,根据小长假客流的变化趋势特点,提出用基于波动趋势的客流时间序列聚类方法进行小长假客流规律的研究。并对聚类过程中小长假时间序列的构建、表示方法、特征值提取及聚类步骤进行了详细描述。

The paper analyzed the causes of the railway passenger flow in the three-day holiday, summarized the factors of the railway passenger flow from the characteristics about passengers and travel purposes, based on the historical tickets data, analyzed the lfuctuation characteristics of passenger lfow in three-day holiday from transport volume, the grade of the board distance, the grade of the seat type, etc, deifned the three-day holiday passenger lfow lfuctuation coefifcient and based on a small holiday passenger trends, proposed a clustering method of time series to study the regular pattern of passenger lfow in the three-day holiday and made detailed descriptions about the building of time series of the three-day holiday and its representations, eigenvalue extraction and clustering step.