金砖五国农产品出口增长及竞争力实证分析

Study on Agricultural Product Export Growth in BRICS Countries and Competitiveness

运用恒定市场份额模型(CMS模型)分析金砖五国农产品出口贸易,结果显示,结构效应是农产品出口增长的主要影响因素,其中增长效应和市场效应对结构效应有重要的影响;世界市场需求增加对金砖五国资本密集型农产品的出口拉动作用在减弱,对劳动力密集型农产品出口拉动作用则在增强;金砖五国资本密集型与劳动力密集型农产品出口主要集中在需求增长较慢的市场;竞争力效应对金砖五国农产品出口贸易影响具有波动性,五国在当前农产品贸易中抵御外部冲击能力较差;整体上金砖五国劳动力密集型农产品竞争力在下降,资本密集型农产品竞争力则在不断增强。由此提出:调整出口增长方式及市场结构,注重培育资本集型农产品竞争力,加强金砖国家间交流与合作等建议。

This paper uses constant market share model（CMS model） to analyze agricultural product export in BRICS countries.The result shows that structural effect is the main influencing factor for agricultural product export growth,among which growth effect and market effect have important influ- ence on structural effect. The world market demand on capital-intensive agricultural product exports is weakening while that on labor-intensive agricultural product exports is growing.Capital-intensive and la- bor-intensive agricultural product exports in BRICS countries mainly concentrate on the market with slo- wer demand growth.. The influence of the competitive effect on agricultural product export in BRICS countries is fluctuating and agricultural trade of BRICS countries resistant to exterior competitiveness is weaker. On the whole, the competitiveness of labor-intensive agricultural product is declining while cap- ital-intensive agricultural product is increasing.Therefore, this paper finally proposes several suggestions that BRIC8 countries should adjust the export growth mode and market structure, foster capital-inten- sive agricultural product competitiveness and strengthen exchanges and cooperation among each other.