不同经济发展阶段下城市用地扩张与土地财政收入关系研究——基于264个城市的实证

Relationship between Urban land Expansion and Land Finance at Different Stages of Economic Development——An Empirical Study Based on Panel Data from 264 Cities

城市用地扩张与土地财政现象是经济发展到一定阶段的产物,两者存在耦合关系。利用中国大陆地区264个城市2002-2011年数据,采用面板数据分析方法对两者的关系进行了研究,结果表明:随着经济发展阶段的提升,城市用地规模与土地财政收入呈递增趋势,组内差距扩大,两者具有相关性;城市用地扩张对土地财政收入增长的贡献随经济发展水平的提高而增加;在不同的经济发展阶段,城市用地扩张都是土地财政收入增长的Granger原因,但仅在全面工业化阶段存在反向关系。在现有制度设计下,城市用地扩张增加了土地供给,但仍满足不了城市因经济发展、城市化与工业化产生的用地需求,是土地财政产生的根本原因,土地财政的增长是城市用地扩张的必然结果;在全面工业化阶段,地方政府为获取更多土地财政收入付出的努力推动了城市用地的扩张。

Urban land expansion and land finance are the products when the economy develops to the certain phases, which have the coupling relationship. Based on the data from 264 cities in China's Mainland from 2002 to 2011 ,this paper uses panel data to analyze the relationship between urban land expansion and land finance. The result shows that with the escalation of economic development, scale of urban land utilization and land finance income show the increasing tendency,the gap is broadening and the two have correlation. The contribution of urban land expansion to land finance has increased with the improvement of economic development. During different stages of economic development, urban land expansion is always the Granger cause of the increase of land finance income, but they have reversed relationship only in the overall industrialization phase. Under the current institutions, urban land expansion enhances the land supply,but it still cannot meet the land demand from the urban economic development, urbanization and industrialization,which is the fundamental reason for the land finance and the increase of land finance is the natural result of urban land utilization. In the overall industrialization phase, local governments push forward the expansion of urban land in order to acquire more land finance income.