新疆农业水土资源平衡分析

Balance Analysis of Agricultural Water and Land Resource in Xinjiang

该文基于新疆水资源及农业用水现状,以目前的灌溉面积为约束条件,深入分析新疆农业水土资源平衡的可能性。以2000~2013年的相关数据资料为基础,采用灰色关联度分析法分别预测了2015年、2020年、2030年新疆有效灌溉面积和灌溉面积,后验差检验（C值）为0.15和0.16,小于标准判断值0.35,表明预测结果很好。结合回归分析的方法,进一步对新疆农业用水需求进行预测,结果显示有效灌溉面积和灌溉面积的用水量均不断提高。在此基础上,模拟了无农业用水总量控制和农业用水总量控制两种情景下水土资源的平衡性,结果发现无农业用水总量控制条件下是不可能实现水土资源平衡的;在农业用水总量控制的条件下,并且灌溉面积控制在3986.25千公顷或有效灌溉面积控制在3667.98千公顷,才可能实现水土资源平衡。为了实现新疆农业水土平衡,分析了三种解决办法,其中发展节水灌溉是当前有效、可行的解决途径。

In this paper, it is based on the current situation of water resource quantity and agricultural water use quantity in Xinjiang. At the same time, in the present irrigation area as the constraint conditions, the paper analisizes the possibilities of agricultural water resource and soil resource in balance. Then according to the related data from 2000 to 2013 in Xinjiang, using gray correlation analysis method predicts the effective irrigation area and irrigation area in 2015, 2020 and 2030.Because the testing value of the posterior variance difference is demark 0.15 and 0.16, and they are Less than the standard judging value as 0.35, it indicate that the forecasting result is very good. Nexfly, combined with the method of regression analysis, the quantity demanded of agricultural water use is predicted furthermore in Xinjiang. The result shows that the water use quantity of the effective irrigation area and irrigation area have been increasing in the future in Xinjiang. After the completion of the work, based on these conditions as the standard, to simulate the balance of water resource and soil resource without controlling the total amount of water resource and controlling the total amount of water resource, it is found that it is not possible to achieve a balance of waterresource and soil rcsource if there was no control on the total amount of water resource in Xinjiang. In the condition of control on the total amount of water resource, if the irrigated area is no more than 3986250 hectares, or the effective irrigation area is no more than 3667980 hectares, it is possible to achieve the balance of water and soil resources. In order to realize the balance of a- grieuhural water and soil resources in Xinjiang, analyzed three kinds of solutions, the development of water-saving irrigation is the effective and feasible solution way.