中国城镇住宅碳排放强度分析和用能政策反思

China's Urban Residential Carbon Intensity Decomposition and Energy Policy Rethink

基于最新可利用的统计数据,对中国城镇住宅使用过程中分品种能源消耗引起的碳排放等指标进行估算,并对城镇住宅碳排放量、碳排放强度的变化指数模型进行分解。结果表明:研究期内城镇住宅能耗结构趋于"清洁化",住宅直接CO_2排放比例趋于下降;住宅能源强度、人均住房面积、家庭总户数、能源碳密度等是影响住宅碳排放和排放强度变化的主要社会经济和能源驱动因子。文章最后提出住宅用能的几点政策启示。

As an energy-intensive sector in China, building energy consumption and emission reduction issues have become more prominent. Based on latest China Energy Yearbook and other available statistics data, this paper estimates China＇s total buildings area, residential area, and residential elevator stock volume, evaluates energy consumption and energy-related carbon emission by fuel in the operation of buildings. Two index decomposition analysis on changes of urban residential carbon emissions and emissions intensity have been applied. The major findings of the study are： during the periods of 1996-2012, there has been a clear shift towards electricity and heat from primary energy consumption in urban residential energy consumption, and the proportion of direct CO2 emissions to residential emission declines. Residential energy intensity, the per capita housing area, family households are the main driving factors affecting carbon emissions change, with contribution rates of -39%, 77%, 67% respectively, and energy intensity decline is the most important factor of carbon intensity decrease. Reduction of carbon intensity is conducive to the decline of carbon emissions and decrease in emission intensity of urban residential. Residential energy efficiency policy lessons learned from rethink of economic and social policies during the study period are concluded.