附加值统计口径下中国制造业出口变化的测算

The Change in China's Manufacturing Exports under the Perspective of Value-added Statistical Methods

本文利用附加值统计方法,剔除我国出口贸易中包含的进口附加值,克服已有方法的不足,以准确地揭示我国出口贸易的真实情况。研究表明：在1995~2011年,我国制造业整体出口的国内附加值率表现为＂下降、上升、下降＂的基本态势,目前,我国出口贸易中的1/4是进口商品;纺织及服装、毛皮制品及鞋类的比较优势下降幅度比较大,但是,仍然是我国出口比较优势最大的两类商品;机械制品、电气电子器材、交通运输设备等3种商品比较优势的上升幅度明显,目前,电气电子器材是我国第三大具有出口比较优势的商品,机械制品、交通运输设备都仍然不具有比较优势;电气电子器材、纺织及服装制造业两类商品占我国出口总额的1/2,机械制品、交通运输设备等行业是我国出口的新增长点。

Under the perspective of Intra-product specialization, the traditional methods of international trade statistics can not exactly reveal the situation of China＇s real export trade. In this paper, the value-added statistical methods overcome the shortcomings of existing methods and truly reflect the changes in China＇s exports. The results show that as following. The overall domestic value added rate of China＇s manufacturing exports show downward recently. Currently, a quarter of China＇s export trade is imported goods. Textile and apparel manufactured goods, furs and footwear still have the largest comparative advantage in China＇s the comparative advantage of electrical and electronic equipment, transportation equipment, machinery products rise significantly, currently electrical and electronic equipment is the third largest comparative advantages commodities, machinery products, transportation equipment still does not have a comparative advantage. Electrical and electronic equipment, textile and apparel manufactured goods accounted for half of China＇s manufactured goods exports. Therefore, the government should focus on developing mechanical products manufacturing and transportation equipment manufacturing, so that the two industries become a new growth point of China＇s exports; prevent the comparative advantages continuously declining in textile and apparel manufactured goods, fur and footwear products.