大理白族自治州水资源承载力评估

Assessment of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture

基于生态用水量、人均国内生产总值用水量、人均粮食用水量和人均生活用水量构建了水资源承载力评价模型,计算了云南省大理白族自治州在不同规划年和不同生活水平下的水资源承载力。结果表明,随着大理白族自治州人们生活水平的提高,在同一水平年下水资源承载指数呈上升趋势,可承载人口数量呈下降趋势;在同一生活水平下,水资源承载指数呈下降趋势,可承载人口数量呈增长趋势。2000年,WRCC最大指数为1.64,在初步富裕生活水平下处于中超载状态;2010年,WRCC最大指数趋于临界值1,达到0.99;2020年,WRCC最大指数为0.85,处于低余载状态,表明大理白族自治州可利用水资源量在保证生态需水的前提下能够满足预测年的人口数量和经济发展规模。

On the basis of water consumption of ecology, GDP per capita, food per capita and living per capita, the evaluation model of WRCC came into being. WRCC of Dab Bai Autonomous Prefecture was assessed under the different planning years and living standards. The results indicated that：（1）As the improvement of the people＇s living standards in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, under the same year the WRCC index was increasing but carrying population was decreasing. OUnder the same living standards the WRCC index was decreasing but carrying population was increasing. （3） In 2000,The maximum index of WRCC about 1.64 meant it remained in a medium overload in the moderately prosperous living standards. （4） In 2010, the maximum index of WRCC was about 0.99, nearly to the critical value 1. （5） In 2020, the maximum index of WRCC about 0.85 meant that it remained in a low surplus and that the available water resources in Dali Bai Autonomous Prefecture, in the prerequisite of meeting the ecological water requirement, was able to satisfy the population size and the economic development scale in the planning year.