基于随机波动模型的联络线波动功率幅值估算

Estimation on Fluctuating Power Amplitude of Tie-line Based on Random Fluctuation Model

大区域互联系统联络线负荷波动引起的不规则功率波动给系统运行带来巨大风险,有必要对波动功率大小进行分析和估算,为此,提出了一种基于随机波动(stochastic volatility,SV)模型的联络线波动功率幅值估算方法,通过建立描述负荷功率波动时序特征的随机波动模型,根据负荷波动与联络线波动功率的关系式计算计及功率波动时序联系的联络线功率波动幅值来统计波动功率幅值的概率分布以及均差和标准差。仿真结果验证了功率波动幅值估算方法的可行性。

Irregular power fluctuation caused by load fluctuation of the tie-line of multi-regional interconnected system may cause huge risk for system operation,thus,it is necessary to analyze and estimate fluctuating power level.Therefore,a kind or estimation method for fluctuating power amplitude of the tie-line based on stochastic volatility（SV）model was proposed. By establishing SV model for describing time sequence characteristic of load power fluctuation and according to relation of load fluctuation and fluctuation power of the tie-line,this method could work out power fluctuation amplitude of the tie-line considering time sequence connection of power fluctuation and calculate out probability distribution,inequality and standard deviation of fluctuating power amplitude.Simulation result indicates feasibility of this estimation method.