滕州西部平原第四系地下水资源管理系统

Management System of Ground Water Re sources in Quaternary System of Western Tengzhou Plain

降雨量作为水资源评价和管理的一个重要参数,长期以来,均采用多年平均值,但由于大气降雨的灾变性,这种平均值即不能客观地反映未来降雨量,更不能代表某一指定年份的降雨量,它实际上是一种建立在算术概率基础上的以数字表示的定性方法。为解决这一问题,本文利用灰色系统理论的灾变预测方法对山东省滕州市西部平原地区不同年份的降雨量进行预测,并通过预测建立该区地下水资源管理模型,主要由三部分组成:即①降雨预测系统;②水资源供需平衡系统;③水资源管理系统。

Since long period of time,the precip itation as a important parameter on e valuation and management of water re sources was all used average value in many years.But because of catastrophe of atmospheric rainfall,this average value can n ot reflect objectively future precipitation,and still less repre sent precipitation of certain year,it' actually a qualitative method showi ntg in figures based on the mathematical probability.The paper has predicted the precipitation of different years in western plain of T engzhou city,Shandong province,with catastrophe prediction methed of Grey system theory,and has established management model of ground water resources in the area through prediction,primarily consist of three parts:①rainfall prediction system;②balance system on supply and demand o f water resources;③management system of water resource s.