中国住房需求持续高涨之谜:基于人口结构视角

The Mystery of China's High Demand for Housing:Based on the Demographic Characteristics

根据人口结构变化来研究房地产市场走向一直被视为住房需求评估的基本方法。在此基础上,本文利用面板数据和地理加权回归模型对中国城市住房需求的影响因素、时空效应以及未来的总体走势进行了综合考察。研究结论认为,城市的常住人口和流动人口数量、居民的收入分配、人力资本状况以及人口抚养比对中国城市的住房需求具有深远影响。从各解释变量回归参数的时空变化中可以看出,人口结构因素的影响程度在时间和空间上均得到了明显强化。分区域的实证研究进一步揭示出了中国城市住房需求的人口结构矛盾在经济发展水平相对较高的城市和区域更加突出,并且呈现出明显的空间失配现象。2015—2030年中国城市住房需求的总体走势将会呈现出"上升一平稳一下降"的"倒U型"特征。2025年以后,中国城市的住房需求将不再具备快速增加的条件。因此,未来中国住房制度的综合配套改革目标,一方面要着眼于抑制当前及今后十年内投资和投机性需求所带来的房价过快上涨;另一方面,要对2025年后可能出现的人口结构"蘑菇云"风险有所预警。

Taking demographic changes to make research on real estate market trends has been regarded as a basic method on assessing housing demand. On this basis, this paper uses panel data and GWR model to investigate comprehensively about influencing factor, spatial and temporal effects as well as the overall trend of Chinese urban housing demand. As a result, it found that the number of cities＇ residents and migrants, income distribution, human capital and the population dependency ratio have significant impact on China＇s urban housing demand. In perspective of temporal and spatial variation of explanatory variables, it can be seen that the importance of demographic factors have been dramatically strengthened. Furthermore, heterogeneous studies by regions reveal that demographic contradiction becomes more prominent in the developed cities and regions, and it also presents an obvious spatial mismatch pattern. Based on the forecast, China＇s urban housing demand will show an overall trend of ＂up-steady-down＂ like ＂inverted U＂ style during 2015--2030. Meanwhile, China＇s urban housing demand will no longer present a rapid increase trend after 2025. Therefore, the future goals of comprehensive reform in China＇s housing system should focus on reining in house prices rising too fast by investment and speculative demand in current and next decade. On the other hand, we may have a warning to the ＂mushroom cloud＂ risks of demographics which will probably occur after 2025.