摘要
气候变化影响是指气候变化背景下社会经济或资源环境的响应。气候变化风险是指由于气候变化所引起的社会经济或资源环境的可能损失。气候变化风险评估是对气候变化影响的定性和对风险的量化。针对气候变化风险评估方法的原理和技术体系,本文从风险指数、风险概率和脆弱性评估三个方面,对研究现状、热点问题和通常方法进行了评述,并对当前研究中存在的问题和未来需求进行了归纳和展望。
Climate change impact refers to the responses of social economy and resources environment to climate change.Climate change risk refers to the possible losses of social economy and resources environment caused by climate change.Climate change risk assessment means the qualitative climate change impact and the quantitative climate change risk.Aiming at the principle and technical system of climate change risk assessment method,current research status,hot issues and common approaches are remarked from three aspects,namely the risk index,the risk probability and the vulnerability.Research gaps and priorities are also discussed.
出处
《大气科学学报》
CSCD
北大核心
2015年第2期155-164,共10页
Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41475045)
唐山市曹妃甸工业区专项(CQZ-2014001)
关键词
气候变化
风险评估
脆弱性/敏感性
不确定性
climate change
risk assessment
vulnerability/sensitivity
uncertainty