1960-2013年南北疆风速变化特征分析

Wind speed change in north and south Xinjiang from 1960 to 2013

利用较为均匀分布在新疆的45个气象站1960-2013年平均风速数据,通过气候趋势分析、气候突变分析、Morlet小波分析、Pearson相关分析等方法,研究近50 a来南北疆平均风速变化特征,结果表明：（1）1960-2013年南北疆地区年平均风速分别以0.15 m·s-1·（10 a）-1和0.14 m·s-1·（10 a）-1的速率显著降低,1960-1990年南北疆年均风速分别以0.21 m·s-1·（10 a）-1和0.18 m·s-1·（10 a）-1速率降低;1991-2013年北疆以0.01 m·s-1·（10 a）-1的速率下降,而南疆却以0.17 m·s-1·（10 a）-1的速率上升,各季节风速变化趋势与年序列相似。（2）四季中,南北疆的年递减率均是夏季最为显著,北疆是冬季变化不明显,而南疆其余各季节相差不大。（3）从空间分布上显示,北疆各站点总体较南疆明显,低海拔区递减幅度较大。（4）风速的长期变化具有一定的突变性,南北疆的平均风速均在1980年前后出现明显的突变点,从各季节平均风速来看,北疆春、夏、秋季突变出现的时间稍早于冬季,南疆春季突变出现的时间稍早于夏、秋和冬季。（5）Morlet小波分析结果显示,南北疆风速变化均存在4 a、8 a及15~20 a左右的变化周期,春夏秋冬各季节表现出强弱不一致,体现出季节性变化。（6）城市化发展对风速的变化产生了一定影响,但不是风速显著下降的主要原因,大气环流变化和气候变暖才是造成风速减小的可能原因。

Growing interests in simulating changes in hydrological processes at global and regional scales corre- spond to increasing floods and draughts at the global scale induced by climate change, which would have a signif- icant impact on social and economic systems, food security and the survival and development of humans. By con- necting annual wind speed data of forty-five meteorological stations which were evenly distributed in north and south Xinjiang from 1960 to 2013 with the existing climatic regionalization of Xinjiang, rate of linear tendency, Mann-Kendall test, Morlet wavelet analysis and Pearson correlation analysis were used to illustrate the change trends and detected abrupt changes of meteorological elements respectively. In the paper, the climate changes of the north and south Xinjiang were studied in the last 50 years. The results showed as follows： （1）From 1960 to 2013, the north Xinjiang average wind speed reduced significantly at a rate of 0.14 m. s-1. （10 a） -~ ,while the south Xinjiang average wind speed was 0.15 m-s-~. （10 a）-l;In 1960-2010, the average annual wind speed in the south- ern and northern part of Xinjiang were at a rate of 0.21 m· s-1- （ 10 a）-1 and 0.18 m·s-1. （ 10 a）-1 decreasing respec- tively; However, during 1991-2013, the north Xinj iang had a decline rate by 0.01 m· s-1. （ 10 a） -1, while the south Xinjiang was 0.17 m·s-1- （10 a）-1 rising, and the seasonal trend in wind speed sequence was similar. （2）For four seasons, the annual decline rate in north and south Xinjiang showed the most significant changes in summer, while the south was no obvious in winter. Other seasons in the south Xinjiang were similar. （3）From the spatial distribution of the display, each site in the north was higher than the south. Low altitudes were diminishing by a big margin; （4） Long-term changes in wind speed was of sudden changes, while the average wind speed abrupt time was apparent in 1980 in the south and north Xinjiang. From an average wind speed of each season, it showed that the abrupt time in spring ,summer and autumn appeared earlier than that of in winter in the north Xinjiang, and the abrupt time in spring appeared earlier than that of in summer, autumn and winter in the south Xinjiang. （5） Results of Morlet wavelet analysis showed that the presence of wind speed change exist 4 a, 8 a and 15-20 a periods, four seasons showed strong inconsistent, reflecting a seasonal variation. （6）The development of city con- struction had some effect on wind speed change, however, regional current change and global warming were the main reasons for wind speed decreasing.