苏州儿童医院住院儿童呼吸道合胞病毒流行特点及与气候因素相关性研究

Prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus infection in hospitalized children at a children's hospital and effects of climate change on the prevalence in Suzhou, China

目的：探讨苏州市住院儿童呼吸道合胞病毒（respiratory syncytial virus, RSV）流行规律与气候因素之间关系。方法采用直接免疫荧光法对2001-2011年收集的42 664份来自于苏州儿童医院的急性呼吸道感染住院患儿鼻咽分泌物标本进行RSV病毒抗原检测；收集同时期苏州市月平均气温、月相对湿度、月雨量、月日照总和和月平均风速气象资料。采用相关分析和逐步回归法研究RSV阳性检出率与气候因素的相关性。结果2001-2011年该院呼吸道感染住院儿童RSV年检出率为11.85%-27.30%。以当年11月至次年4月为1个RSV流行季节，2001-2010年中9个流行季节的检出率依次为40.75%、22.72%、39.93%、27.37%、42.71%、21.28%、38.57%、19.86%和29.73%，相邻两季间RSV检出率差异有统计学意义。RSV月检出率与月平均气温、月日照总和、月雨量、月相对湿度和月平均风速均呈负相关（P〈0.05）；逐步回归分析示只有月平均气温进入线性模型（R2=0.64，P〈0.01）。结论 RSV在苏州的流行主要集中在当年11月至次年4月，总体上呈隔年高峰趋势，气温对该地区RSV的流行起着重要作用。

ObjectiveTo investigate the prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus （RSV） infection in hospitalized children and the relationship between the prevalence and the climate change in Suzhou, China.MethodsA total of 42 664 nasopharyngeal secretions from hospitalized children with acute respiratory infection at the Suzhou Children＇s Hospital were screened for RSV antigens using direct immunolfuorescence. Monthly meteorological data （mean monthly air temperature, monthly relative humidity, monthly rainfall, total monthly sunshine duration, and mean monthly wind velocity） in Suzhou between 2001 and 2011 were collected. The correlations between RSV detection rate and climatic factors were evaluated using correlation and stepwise regression analysis.ResultsThe annual RSV infection rate in hospitalized children with respiratory infection in the Suzhou Children＇s Hospital varied between 11.85% and 27.30%from 2001 to 2011. In the 9 epidemic seasons, each spanning from November to April of the next year, from 2001 to 2010, the RSV detection rates were 40.75%, 22.72%, 39.93%, 27.37%, 42.71%, 21.28%, 38.57%, 19.86%, and 29.73%, respectively; there were signiifcant differences in the detection rate between the epidemic seasons. The monthly RSV detection rate was negatively correlated with mean monthly air temperature, total monthly sunshine duration, monthly rainfall, monthly relative humidity, and mean monthly wind velocity （P〈0.05）. Stepwise regression analysis showed that mean monthly air temperature iftted into a linear model （R2=0.64,P〈0.01）.ConclusionsFrom 2001 to 2011, RSV infection in Suzhou was predominantly prevalent between November and April of the next year. As a whole, the infection rate of RSV reached a peak every other year. Air temperature played an important role in the epidemics of RSV infection in Suzhou.